Despite the corporate media’s desire for the so-called “Clinton firewall” to stop the political revolution, they will be disappointed to find out that the Northeast, Midwest, and West are not protected from the bern.
The media keeps telling us that after winning South Carolina, Hillary Clinton will dominate Super Tuesday and that will make her the nominee. Not so fast. First of all, Bernie Sanders can do well on Super Tuesday even if Hillary Clinton dominates the southern states. The last time I checked, Vermont, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, and Oklahoma were not southern states. That is 5 out of the 11 Super Tuesday states.
So what is Bernie’s path to victory after that? Bernie is leading in Massachusetts, so I would think that Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and that big state just to the south of New England where Bernie was born and raised are all winnable for Bernie. Oh, and I don’t think people in those states follow the trends of the South – they pride themselves on being more progressive.
Now let’s move to the mid-Atlantic: Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware – and based on some polling let’s move West Virginia and North Carolina out of the South. Bernie has a big lead in the polls in West Virginia, and I believe he can win in North Carolina. Let’s remember Bernie has the white blue-collar vote that gave Clinton Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia in ’08. If he pulls off those three states to add to New York, then Bernie is in great shape, not to mention that Nate Silver thinks Sanders will dominate the West. Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, Montana, the Dakotas, and New Mexico are states where he could beat Clinton.
Let’s even say there is a split in the Midwest and the breadbasket. What if the race went to California dead even? Bernie can win the biggest prize and have a strong argument to the superdelegates that he, not Hillary Clinton, is the best candidate to beat Donald Trump in November.
Let’s look at the day California holds its primary, June 7th. It might be the most important day of this whole process.
The Dakotas, Montana, and New Mexico are states Sanders should do well in. The fight will be for those 601 delegates that California and New Jersey have. I do not see Hillary Clinton beating Bernie Sanders in the Bay Area. San Francisco, Santa Cruz, and Oakland are ready for the revolution. There is a substantial enough progressive community in Southern California to keep Clinton from dominating there like Sanders will in the Bay Area. They don’t call it the Left Coast for nothing – Bernie can win California. Add that to New York, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and may other states and you can see a clear path to victory.
Even without damaging Hillary’s firewall in the South, Bernie Sanders can win the Democratic Party nomination. Before you pounce, I am not saying he will win all of those states, but he can win all of those states, so he has a path to victory even if he loses the South.
The first time the Blue Dogs tried to nominate a candidate with a Super Tuesday in the South was in 1988. The Clintons were very involved in the Democratic Leadership Council, whose goal was to nominate a southerner to take back the White House. A progressive candidate from Chicago ruined their day, Jesse Jackson won more delegates on Super Tuesday than anyone else, leaving the door open for Michael Dukakis. The DLC would have to wait four years for Bill Clinton to achieve their goal.
This time I think the southern strategy is flawed. The Sanders campaign has not conceded the South but they are forging a path to the nomination that doesn’t need the South. Pssst … guess what, it’s working. The latest Reuters tracking poll has Bernie up 6 points nationally, and has had Bernie in the lead nationally most of the month.
More troubling for Clinton in the Reuters poll than being down 6 points is she is down to 35% support in the poll. Not a number that can win the nomination in a two-candidate field.
Polling guru Nate Silver, in an article, “Bernie Sanders’s Path to the Nomination,” used models that were based on Clinton being up 12 nationally or tied with Sanders. I wonder what his formula would show with Sanders up 6 nationally?
As much as the media and Democratic Party establishment want you to believe it will all be over next Tuesday, it’s only wishful thinking. Just like in 2008, not only will Hillary Clinton’s opponent still be standing after Super Tuesday, he will be in a stronger position than she will. The wind is still at Bernie’s back.